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Jim Amos's avatar

Nothing wrong with your optimism, but so far there is scant evidence that genAI is amplifying human abilities. It was designed to replace them, its founders talk about replacing people, and the first target for replacement was creative work: something we actually enjoy and don't want to replace. Market forces and CEO greed is turning this into a race to the bottom, with no plan in place for how to deal with the fallout.

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Marginal Gains's avatar

I am not an economist, so below are my 2 cents based on my observations, reading, and experience, and since it is a sample size of 1, I could be way off:

1. I do not look at jobs only based on the number of jobs created by a new technology. Will these newly created jobs pay as much or better than jobs that will disappear? What would be the quality of employment? Are these jobs going to motivate people to go to work, or is this one of the Bullshit jobs mentioned in this book (https://tinyurl.com/msckmhxd)? Note: I'm not 100% in agreement with this book, but I think it is mainly true.

2. Also, if the new jobs require little or no skill or very high skill, the former will be boring for skilled people, and the latter will create a situation in which there may not be enough people to do the jobs even after AI augmentation.

3. Also, doing more with fewer people or doing more with the same number of people is an excellent way to consider AI benefits if they ever become realized. However, in the short term, it may create higher unemployment since companies will hire fewer people or not look for replacements once someone leaves.

4. My other fear is that companies will stop hiring people with no or little experience if they get very high productivity from experienced people. There won’t be a lot of incentive to hire low—or no-experience people, creating a long-term situation where we will not have a pipeline of experienced people.

5. We may see a lot of pushback from people who think AI will threaten their jobs. I recently read in the Washington Post (https://tinyurl.com/4jk32red) that even doctors do not want to use AI in their work because they think it would be an excuse for insurance and hospital administrators to cut staff in the name of innovation and efficiency.

6. As someone said, “As soon as it works, no one calls it AI anymore, and it is software.” It will become part of the software and be introduced without people knowing it exists.

7. I agree that we will eventually need AI and robots to keep the world growing as the birth rate continues to drop and there are not enough working-age people. However, we are not there yet. Do we still need very high growth if we have fewer people, as older people, either way, consume much less?

8. How will we compensate people who will lose their jobs? Yes, universal basic pay is an option. However, most of us work not only for money but also because it gives us a purpose and a reason to wake up in the morning. A few people say you can travel and work on your hobbies, but I do not think it is for everyone or most people. You can do these things for so long after that you want to do something similar to a job as you want to feel valued and add value to your organization, community, and society.

9. Very few companies will say it will replace people's jobs as they do not want people to think their product is a threat, even though they know this is the case.

10. Drawing parallels between AI and past technological revolutions may be misleading. While previous innovations like the printing press, steam engine, or computers primarily automated physical tasks or streamlined existing workflows, AI represents something fundamentally different - it's the first technology designed to replicate and potentially surpass human cognitive abilities. Unlike past transitions where humans could shift to roles requiring higher thinking, AI targets these very cognitive tasks. While new jobs may emerge, as they did with previous innovations, we cannot rely on historical patterns when facing a technology that competes with human intelligence itself. As uncomfortable as this conclusion may be, we're in uncharted territory. I do not like to say that, but it may be different this time.

To summarize, we need to be ready for a worst-case scenario in which there would be a lot of unemployment, and many people may not find purpose without jobs. We should plan for it and hope we do not see it.

Thoughts?

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